1. Mirwi yekuchaja magetsi ekuwedzera magetsi emotokari nyowani, uye pane misiyano yekusimudzira kumba nekune dzimwe nyika.
1.1.Murwi wekuchaja isimba rekuwedzera simba remotokari nyowani
Murwi wekuchaja mudziyo wemotokari nyowani dzemagetsi kuwedzera simba remagetsi.Zviri kumotokari dzine simba idzva chii chinonzi chiteshi chepeturu chemafuta emotokari.Kurongeka uye mashandisirwo ezvitunha zvekuchaja zvinochinjika kupfuura zviteshi zvegasi, uye mhando dzakapfuma zvakare.Zvinoenderana nefomu yekuisa, inogona kukamurwa kuita mirwi yekuchaja yakamisikidzwa, yakatwasuka yekuchaja mirwi, nhare yekuchaja mirwi, nezvimwe, izvo zvakakodzera kune akasiyana saiti mafomu;
Zvinoenderana nechikamu chemamiriro ekushandiswa, inogona kukamurwa kuita mirwi yekuchaja yeruzhinji, mirwi yekuchaja yakasarudzika, mirwi yekuchaja yakavanzika, nezvimwewo. Mirwi yekuchaja yeruzhinji inopa masevhisi ekuchaja kuruzhinji, uye mirwi yekuchaja yakakosha kazhinji inongoshanda mukati mekuvaka. pile company, ukuwo mapira ekuchaja akavanzika anoiswa mumirwi yekuchaja yakavanzika.Nzvimbo dzekupaka, dzisina kuvhurika kune veruzhinji;
Zvinoenderana nechikamu chekuchaja kumhanya (kuchaja simba), inogona kukamurwa kuita mirwi yekuchaja nekukurumidza uye inononoka yekuchaja mirwi;zvinoenderana nechikamu chetekinoroji yekuchaja, inogona kukamurwa kuita DC yekuchaja piles uye AC yekuchaja mirwi.Kazhinji kutaura, DC yekuchaja mirwi ine yakakwirira yekuchaja simba uye nekukurumidza kuchaja kumhanya, nepo AC yekuchaja mirwi inochaja zvishoma.
MuUnited States, mirwi yekuchaja inowanzopatsanurwa kuita nhanho dzakasiyana zvichienderana nesimba, pakati peiyo Level 1 uyeLevel 2anowanzo AC kuchaja mirwi, iyo inokodzera dzinenge dzese magetsi emagetsi mota, nepo tributary kukurumidza kuchaja haina kukodzera kune ese matsva emagetsi mota, uye Mhando dzakasiyana-siyana dzinotorwa zvichienderana neakasiyana masisitimu emhando seJ1772, CHAdeMO, Tesla, nezvimwe.
Parizvino, hapana chiyero chakabatana chekuchaja munyika.Iwo makuru interface zviyero anosanganisira China's GB/T, Japan's CHAOmedo, European Union's IEC 62196, iyo United States 'SAE J1772, uye IEC 62196.
1.2.Kukura kwemotokari dzemagetsi matsva uye rubatsiro rwemitemo kunofambisa kusimudzira kwakasimba kwekuchaja mirwi munyika yangu
indasitiri yemotokari yesimba idzva renyika yangu iri kukura nekukurumidza.mota itsva dzenyika yangu dzinoramba dzichikura, kunyanya kubvira 2020, chiyero chekupinda chemotokari nyowani chakawedzera nekukurumidza, uye panosvika 2022 chiyero chekupinda chemotokari dzesimba idzva chakapfuura 25%.Huwandu hwemotokari dzemagetsi matsva hucharamba huchiwedzera.Zvinoenderana nenhamba dzeBazi rePublic Security, chikamu chemotokari nyowani dzemagetsi kusvika kuhuwandu hwemotokari muna 2022 ichasvika 4.1%.
Nyika yakapa mitemo yakati wandei yekutsigira kuvandudzwa kweindasitiri yekuchaja mirwi.Kutengeswa uye varidzi vemotokari nyowani dzesimba munyika yangu dzinoramba dzichikura, uye saizvozvi, kudiwa kwezvivakwa zvekuchaja kuri kuramba kuchiwedzera.Panyaya iyi, madhipatimendi ematunhu akakodzera akapa akati wandei ekusimudzira indasitiri yekuchaja mirwi, kusanganisira tsigiro negwara, rubatsiro rwemari, uye zvinangwa zvekuvaka.
Nekukura kunoramba kuchienderera mberi kwemotokari dzemagetsi matsva uye kukurudzira kwemitemo, huwandu hwekuchaja mirwi munyika yangu huri kuramba huchikura.Kubva muna Kubvumbi 2023, nhamba yekuchaja mirwi munyika yangu i6.092 miriyoni.Pakati pavo, nhamba yemapaki ekuchaja veruzhinji yakawedzera ne52% gore-pa-gore kusvika kumamiriyoni 2.025 miriyoni, iyo DC inochaja mirwi yakaita 42% uye.AC kuchaja mirwidzakatora 58%.Sezvo mirwi yekuchaja yakavanzika ichiwanzo kuunganidzwa nemotokari, kukura kwevaridzi kwakatokura.Nekukurumidza, nekuwedzera kwegore-pagore kwe104% kusvika ku4.067 mamiriyoni emamiriyoni.
Chiyero chemotokari-kune-murwi munyika yangu i2.5: 1, iyo yeruzhinji mota-ku-murwi reshiyo i7.3: 1.Vehicle-to-pile ratio, ndiko kuti, reshiyo yemotokari itsva dzemagetsi kune mirwi yekuchaja.Kubva pakuona kwekutsvaga, pakupera kwa2022, chiyero chemotokari kune mirwi munyika yangu chichava 2.5: 1, uye maitiro ose ari kuderera zvishoma nezvishoma, ndiko kuti, zvivako zvekuchaja zvemotokari itsva dzemagetsi zviri kuramba zvichivandudzwa.Pakati pavo, chiyero chemotokari dzevanhu kune mirwi ndeye 7.3: 1, iyo yakawedzera zvishoma nezvishoma kubva pakupera kwe 2020. Chikonzero ndechokuti kutengesa kwemotokari yemagetsi matsva kwakakura nokukurumidza uye kuwedzera kwekukura kwakapfuura kufambira mberi kwekuvaka kwekuchaja kwevanhu. piles;chiyero chemotokari dzepachivande kune mirwi i3.8: 1, zvichiratidza kudzikira zvishoma nezvishoma.Chiitiko ichi chinonyanya kukonzerwa nezvinhu zvakadai sekusimudzirwa kunobudirira kwemitemo yenyika kusimudzira kuvakwa kwepachivande kuchaja mirwi munzvimbo dzinogara vanhu.
Panyaya yekuputsika kwemapundu ekuchaja veruzhinji, huwandu hweveruzhinji DC mirwi: nhamba yeruzhinji AC mirwi ≈ 4: 6, saka reshiyo yeruzhinji DC mirwi inenge 17.2: 1, iyo yakakwirira kupfuura reshiyo yeruzhinji AC. mirwi ye12.6:1.
Iyo yekuwedzera mota-kune-murwi reshiyo inoratidza zvishoma nezvishoma maitiro ekuvandudza sese.Kubva pakuwedzera kwemaonero, sezvo mirwi mitsva yekuchaja pamwedzi, kunyanya mirwi mitsva yekuchaja yeruzhinji, haina hukama hwepedyo nekutengesa kwemotokari nyowani, ine shanduko huru uye inotungamira kukuchinja kweyemwe mwedzi mitsva yemurwi wemotokari.Naizvozvo, kota yega Iyo caliber inoshandiswa kuverenga iyo incremental mota-to-pile ratio, ndiko kuti, vhoriyamu yekutengesa yezvichangobva kuwedzerwa magetsi emagetsi: nhamba yezvichangobva kuwedzerwa mirwi yekuchaja.Muna 2023Q1, iyo ichangobva kuwedzerwa mota-kune-murwi reshiyo ndeye 2.5: 1, ichiratidza zvishoma nezvishoma kudzika maitiro zvachose.Pakati pavo, iyo itsva yeruzhinji mota-to-pile reshiyo ndeye 9.8: 1, uye ichangobva kuwedzerwa yega yega-to-pile reshiyo ndeye 3.4: 1, iyo inoratidzawo kuvandudzwa kwakakosha.trend.
1.3.Kuvakwa kwezvivakwa zvekuchaja mhiri kwemakungwa hakuna kukwana, uye mukana wekukura wakakura
1.3.1.Europe: Kuvandudzwa kwesimba idzva kwakasiyana, asi pane mapeji ekuchaja mirwi
Motokari itsva dzemagetsi muEurope dziri kukura nekukurumidza uye dzine mwero wekupinda.Europe nderimwe rematunhu anonyanya kukoshesa kuchengetedza kwezvakatipoteredza munyika.Inotungamirwa nemitemo nemitemo, indasitiri yemotokari yemagetsi yeEuropean iri kukura nekukurumidza uye mwero wekupinda kwesimba idzva wakakwira.Yakasvika 21.2%.
Motokari-ku-murwi reshiyo muEurope yakakwira, uye kune gaka rakakura muzvivakwa zvekuchaja.Zvinoenderana nehuwandu hweIEA, chiyero chemirwi yemotokari dzeveruzhinji muEurope ichave ingangoita 14.4: 1 muna 2022, iyo iyo veruzhinji yekuchaja mirwi inongoverengera 13%.Kunyangwe musika wemagetsi emagetsi eEuropean uri kusimukira nekukurumidza, kuvakwa kwezvivakwa zvekuchaja kwakare kumashure, uye kune matambudziko senge mashoma ekuchaja uye kunonoka kuchaja.
Kuvandudzwa kwesimba idzva hakuna kuenzana pakati penyika dzeEurope, uye chiyero chemotokari dzevanhu kune mirwi yakasiyanawo.Panyaya yekugovaniswa, Norway neSweden vane mwero wepamusoro wekupinda kwesimba idzva, inosvika 73.5% uye 49.1% zvakateerana muna 2022, uye chiyero chemotokari dzeveruzhinji kumirwi munyika mbiri idzi zvakare chakakwira kupfuura avhareji yeEurope, inosvika 32.8: 1 uye 25.0 zvakateerana: 1.
Germany, United Kingdom, neFrance ndidzo nyika huru dzekutengesa mota muEurope, uye mwero wekupinda kwesimba idzva zvakare wakakwira.Muna 2022, huwandu hutsva hwekupinda kwesimba muGermany, United Kingdom, neFrance huchasvika 28.2%, 20.3%, uye 17.3%, zvichiteerana, uye huwandu hwemotokari dzeveruzhinji huchave 24.5: 1, 18.8: 1, uye 11.8 :1, zvichiteerana.
Panyaya yemitemo, European Union nenyika zhinji dzeEurope dzakatevedzana dzakaunza mitemo yekukurudzira kana kubhadharisa mari yerubatsiro ine chekuita nekuvakwa kwenzvimbo dzekuchaja kukurudzira kuvandudzwa kwenzvimbo dzekuchaja.
1.3.2.United States: Zvivako zvekuchajisa zvinoda kuvandudzwa nokukurumidza, uye hurumende nemakambani anoshanda pamwe chete
Seimwe yemisika mikuru yemotokari pasirese, United States yakafambira mberi zvishoma nezvishoma mumunda wesimba idzva kupfuura China neEurope.Muna 2022, kutengeswa kwemotokari itsva dzemagetsi kuchapfuura miriyoni imwe, nehuwandu hwekupinda hunosvika 7.0%.
Panguva imwecheteyo, kuvandudzwa kwemusika wekuchaja veruzhinji muUnited States zvakare kunonoka, uye nzvimbo dzekuchaja veruzhinji hadzina kukwana.Muna 2022, chiyero chemotokari dzeveruzhinji kune mirwi muUnited States ichave 23.1: 1, iyo yeruzhinji yekuchaja mirwi ichaverengera 21.9%.
United States nedzimwe nyika dzakarongawo mitemo yekusimudzira yekuchaja zvivakwa, kusanganisira chirongwa chehurumende yeUS chekuvaka mazana mashanu ezviuru ekuchaja mapile anoita US$7.5 bhiriyoni.Zvose zvinowanikwa kumatunhu pasi pechirongwa cheNEVI i$615 miriyoni muFY 2022 uye $885 miriyoni muFY 2023. Zvakakosha kuziva kuti mirwi yekuchaja inotora chikamu muchirongwa chehurumende yemubatanidzwa yeUS inofanira kugadzirwa muUnited States (kusanganisira nzira dzekugadzira. sedzimba negungano), uye muna Chikunguru 2024, ingangoita 55% yezvese zvinodhura zvinofanirwa kubva kuUnited States.
Pamusoro pekukurudzira kwemitemo, makambani ekuchaja mirwi nemakambani emotokari akakurudzirawo kuvakwa kwenzvimbo dzekuchaja, kusanganisira kuvhurwa kwaTesla kwechikamu chetiweki yekuchaja, uye ChargePoint, BP nemamwe makambani emotokari ari kushandirapamwe kuendesa nekuvaka mirwi.
Makambani mazhinji anochaja mirwi kutenderera pasirese ari kushingaira kuisa mari muUnited States kuti atange dzimbahwe idzva, zvivakwa kana mitsetse yekugadzira kugadzira mirwi yekuchaja muUnited States.
2. Nekukurumidza kusimudzira kweindasitiri, musika wekuchaja mhiri kwemakungwa unowedzera kushanduka.
2.1.Chipingamupinyi chekugadzira chiri mune yekuchaja module, uye chipingamupinyi chekuenda mhiri kwemakungwa chiri muchiyero chitupa.
2.1.1.Iyo AC murwi ine yakaderera zvipingamupinyi, uye musimboti weDC murwi ndiyo yekuchaja module
Izvo zvipingamupinyi zvekugadzira zve AC kuchaja mapairi zvakaderera, uye yekuchaja module mukatiDC kuchaja mirwindicho chikamu chikuru.Kubva pamaonero emusimboti wekushanda uye chimiro chekuumbwa, iyo AC/DC shanduko yemotokari nyowani dzemagetsi inoitwa ne-on-board charger mukati memotokari panguva yekuchaja kweAC, saka chimiro cheiyo AC yekuchaja murwi iri nyore uye mutengo wakaderera. .MuDC yekuchaja, maitiro ekushandura kubva ku AC kuenda kuDC anoda kupedzwa mukati memurwi wekuchaja, saka inoda kuzadzikiswa nemodule yekuchaja.Iyo yekuchaja module inokanganisa kugadzikana kwedunhu, kuita uye kuchengetedzwa kwemurwi wese.Ndicho chepakati chikamu cheDC yekuchaja murwi uye chimwe chezvikamu zvine chepamusoro tekinoroji zvipingamupinyi.Kuchaja module vatengesi vanosanganisira Huawei, Infy simba, Sinexcel, nezvimwe.
2.1.2.Kupfuura mhiri kwemakungwa standard certification chinhu chinodiwa kune bhizinesi rekunze
Zvipingamupinyi zvezvitupa zviripo mumisika yemhiri kwemakungwa.China, Europe, neUnited States dzakapa zvitupa zvakakodzera zvekuchaja mirwi, uye kupasa chitupa chinhu chinodiwa kuti upinde mumusika.China's certification standards inosanganisira CQC, nezvimwewo, asi hapana chinosungirwa chitupa chiyero chenguva iripo.Miyero yekupihwa zvitupa muUnited States inosanganisira UL, FCC, Energy Star, nezvimwewo. Miyero yezvitupa muEuropean Union inonyanya kuve CE certification, uye dzimwe nyika dzeEurope dzakapawo dzadzo dzakapatsanurwa zvitupa zviyero.Pakazara, kuoma kwezvitupa zviyero iUnited States > Europe > China.
2.2.Zvemumba: Kukwirisa kwakanyanya kwekupedzisira kwekushanda, kukwikwidza kunotyisa mune yese mirwi link, uye kuenderera mberi kwekukura kwenzvimbo.
Iko kusungirirwa kwevashandi vepamba vanochaja mirwi yakakwira, uye kune vakawanda vanokwikwidza mune yese yekuchaja murwi link, uye marongerwo akapararira.Kubva pamaonero ekuchaja mashandisi emurwi, Nharembozha uye Xingxing Kuchaja account yeinoda kusvika makumi mana muzana yemusika weruzhinji wekuchaja mirwi, uye huwandu hwemusika hwakanyanya, CR5 = 69.1%, CR10 = 86.9%, iyo yeruzhinji DC murwi musika CR5. =80.7%, Iyo yeruzhinji kutaurirana murwi musika CR5 = 65.8%.Tichitarisa pamusika wese kubva pasi kusvika kumusoro, vashandi vakasiyana-siyana vakagadzirawo mhando dzakasiyana, dzakadai seTerefoni, Xingxing Kuchaja, nezvimwewo, vachiisa kumusoro nekudzika kweiyo indasitiri yeketani kusanganisira iyo yese yekugadzira maitiro, uye kune zvakare senge. Xiaoju Kuchaja, Cloud Kurumidza Kuchaja, nezvimwewo izvo zvinotora chiedza Iyo asset modhi inopa yechitatu-bato yekuchaja chiteshi zvigadziriso zvemurwi wese mugadziri kana opareta.Kune vazhinji vanogadzira mirwi yakazara muChina.Kunze kweiyo yakatwasuka yekubatanidza modhi seTerefoni uye Nyeredzi Kuchaja, iyo yese mirwi chimiro chakapararira.
Huwandu hwemirwi yekuchaja veruzhinji munyika yangu inotarisirwa kusvika 7.6 miriyoni panosvika 2030. Tichifunga nezvekuvandudzwa kweindasitiri yemotokari nyowani yenyika uye kuronga kwemitemo yenyika, matunhu nemaguta, zvinofungidzirwa kuti panosvika 2025 na2030, nhamba yeruzhinji yekuchaja mirwi muChina ichasvika 4.4 miriyoni uye 7.6 miriyoni zvakateerana, uye 2022-2025E uye 2025E Iyo CAGR ye -2030E i35.7% uye 11.6% zvichiteerana.Panguva imwecheteyo, chikamu cheveruzhinji chekuchaja mirwi mumirwi yeruzhinji chichawedzerawo zvishoma nezvishoma.Zvinofungidzirwa kuti panosvika 2030, 47.4% yeruzhinji yekuchaja mirwi ichave inokurumidza kuchaja mirwi, zvichiwedzera kuvandudza ruzivo rwevashandisi.
2.3.Europe: Kuvakwa kwemapiru ekuchaja kuri kukurumidza, uye chikamu chekuchaja mirwi chiri kuwedzera.
Tichitora iyo UK semuenzaniso, huwandu hwemusika hwekuchaja vanobata mirwi hwakaderera pane hweChina.Seimwe yenyika huru dzesimba idzva muEurope, nhamba yeruzhinji yekuchaja mirwi muUK ichaverengera 9.9% muna 2022. Kubva pakuona kweBritish yekuchaja mirwi musika, huwandu hwemusika hwese hwakaderera pane hwemusika weChina. .Mumusika weruzhinji wekuchaja mirwi, ubitricity, Pod Point, bp pulse, nezvimwewo vane chikamu chepamusoro chemusika, CR5 = 45.3%.Veruzhinji vanokurumidza kuchaja mirwi uye mirwi yekuchaja inokurumidza Pakati pavo, InstaVolt, bp pulse, uye Tesla Supercharger (kusanganisira yakavhurika uye Tesla-chaiyo) yakaverengera kupfuura gumi muzana, uye CR5 = 52.7%.Parutivi rwese rwekugadzira mirwi, vatambi vakuru vemusika vanosanganisira ABB, Nokia, Schneider uye mamwe mahofori emaindasitiri mumunda wekuisa magetsi, pamwe nemakambani emagetsi anoona marongero eindasitiri yekuchaja mirwi kuburikidza nekutora.Semuenzaniso, BP yakawana imwe yemakambani makuru emagetsi ekuchaja motokari muUK muna 2018. 1. Chargemaster naShell vakawana ubitricity uye vamwe muna 2021 (BP neShell zvose zviri giants indasitiri yemafuta).
Muna 2030, huwandu hwemirwi yekuchaja veruzhinji muEurope inotarisirwa kusvika 2.38 miriyoni, uye chikamu chekukurumidza kuchaja mirwi chicharamba chichiwedzera.Zvinoenderana nefungidziro, panosvika 2025 na2030, huwandu hweveruzhinji hwekuchaja mirwi muEurope huchasvika 1.2 miriyoni uye 2.38 miriyoni zvakateerana, uye CAGR ye2022-2025E uye 2025E-2030E ichave 32.8% uye 14.7% zvichiteerana.ichatonga, asi huwandu hwemirwi yekuchaja nekukurumidza huri kuwedzera zvakare.Zvinofungidzirwa kuti panosvika 2030, 20.2% yeruzhinji yekuchaja mirwi ichave inokurumidza kuchaja mirwi.
2.4.United States: Nzvimbo yemusika inoshanduka, uye mabhureki emuno anotonga parizvino
Iyo yekuchaja network yemusika wekutengesa muUnited States yakakwira kupfuura iyo muChina neEurope, uye mhando dzemuno dzinotonga.Kubva pakuona kwehuwandu hwemasayiti ekuchaja network, ChargePoint inotora chinzvimbo chekutungamira nechikamu che54.9%, ichiteverwa naTesla ne10.9% (kusanganisira Level 2 neDC Fast), ichiteverwa neBlink neSemaCharge, ariwo makambani ekuAmerica.Kubva pamaonero ehuwandu hwekuchaja maEVSE ports, ChargePoint ichiri yakakwirira kupfuura mamwe makambani, inoverengera 39.3%, ichiteverwa naTesla, inoverengera 23.2% (kusanganisira Level 2 neDC Fast), ichiteverwa nemakambani mazhinji ekuAmerica.
Muna 2030, huwandu hwemirwi yekuchaja veruzhinji muUnited States inotarisirwa kusvika 1.38 miriyoni, uye chikamu chekukurumidza kuchaja mirwi chicharamba chichiwedzera.Zvinoenderana nefungidziro, panosvika 2025 na2030, huwandu hweveruzhinji hwekuchaja mirwi muUnited States huchasvika 550,000 uye 1.38 miriyoni zvakateerana, uye CAGR ye2022-2025E uye 2025E-2030E ichave 62.6%, 20% zvichiteerana.Zvakafanana nemamiriro akaita zvinhu muEurope, mapitu ekuchaja anononoka achiri kutora ruzhinji, asi chikamu chemirwi yekuchaja nekukurumidza chicharamba chichiwedzera.Zvinofungidzirwa kuti panosvika 2030, 27.5% yeruzhinji yekuchaja mirwi ichave inokurumidza kuchaja mirwi.
2.5.Market Space Calculation
Zvichienderana nekuongororwa kwepamusoro kweiyo veruzhinji yekuchaja mirwi indasitiri muChina, Europe, uye United States, zvinofungidzirwa kuti huwandu hweveruzhinji hwekuchaja mirwi huchakura paCAGR panguva ye2022-2025E, uye huwandu hwemapitu ekuchaja. yakawedzerwa gore rega rega ichawanikwa nekubvisa nhamba yekubata.Panyaya yemutengo wezvigadzirwa zvechigadzirwa, mirwi yekuchaja-inononoka inotengeswa pa2,000-4,000 yuan/set, uye mitengo yekunze i300-600 madhora/seti (kureva, 2,100-4,300 yuan/set).Mutengo wemumba 120kW inokurumidza-kuchaja mapile i50,000-70,000 yuan/set, nepo mutengo wekunze 50-350kW kukurumidza-kuchaja mirwi inogona kusvika 30,000-150,000 madhora/ set, uye mutengo we120kW 0, kukurumidza-kuchaja 00. -60,000 madhora / set.Zvinofungidzirwa kuti panosvika 2025, nzvimbo yese yemusika yeruzhinji yekuchaja mirwi muChina, Europe, uye United States ichasvika 71.06 bhiriyoni yuan.
3. Kuongororwa kwemakambani makuru
Makambani ekunze ari muindasitiri yekuchaja mirwi anosanganisira ChargePoint, EVBox, Blink, BP Pulse, Shell, ABB, Siemens, etc. Makambani emumba anosanganisira Autel, Sinexcel,CHINAEVSE, TGOOD, Gresgying, etc. Pakati pavo, makambani epamba mirwi akaitawo kufambira mberi mukuenda mhiri kwemakungwa.Semuenzaniso, zvimwe zvigadzirwa zveCHINAEVSE zvakawana UL, CSA,Energy Star certification muUnited States uye CE, UKCA, MID chitupa muEuropean Union.CHINAEVSE yakapinda muBP Rondedzero yekuchaja mirwi vatengesi nevagadziri.
Nguva yekutumira: Jul-10-2023